Kings Should Take Heed From Flyers’ Past

NHLHS writer Dave Strehle dives into the Ilya Kovalchuk saga with his thoughts on the situation.

Reading the daily rumor mill as to whether or not the Los Angeles Kings are still in the running to sign unrestricted free agent Ilya Kovalchuk has become tedious, at best.

Let’s see, today is the 12th…it’s an even day, so the Kings are in talks with Kovalchuk and his agent, Jay Grossman.  But come tomorrow, there will be “no new talks scheduled”.

It’s hard to believe that these rumors have only been going on for less than two weeks.  Every day there is a new one, and today is no different.

TSN.ca is reporting that the Kings are denying reports that they will announce today the signing of the biggest free agent on the market this year.

Kings’ GM Dean Lombardi says that Kovalchuk is flying to Los Angeles to meet in person as talks continue.

The two sides are said to still be far apart on terms of a contract, with L.A. reportedly offering deals for 12 years for $63 million and 13 years for $84.5 million.

Kovalchuk’s camp is looking for a 10-year, $100 million guaranteed deal.  With upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotations and the possibility of another owner-induced lockout looming after the 2011-12 season, the guaranteed money has to be a sticking point for the Kings.

The 27-year-old sniper has scored 40 or more goals in each of the last six NHL seasons, netting a career-high of 52 in 2005-06.  He lit the lamp 41 times last season playing for the Atlanta Thrashers and New Jersey Devils.

While he remains one of the most predominant, dynamic players in the world, Lombardi and company may want to proceed with caution as they head into further negotiations with Kovalchuk.

The situation in the City of Angels bears a striking resemblence to that of the Philadelphia Flyers in the early 1990′s.

The Flyers had gone through a patch of three consecutive non-playoff seasons, but were starting to re-build with a solid base of players.  But GM Russ Farwell added youngsters such as Rod Brind’Amour, Mark Recchi, Mike Ricci, and a newly drafted phenom named Peter Forsberg, a winning team was beginning to take shape.

But Philadelphia ripped the franchise apart to acquire another young superstar-in-the-making in Eric Lindros, sending Forsberg, Ricci, offensive defenseman Steve Duchesne, starting goaltender Ron Hextall, a bevy of other young players, draft picks, and cash to the Quebec Nordiques for the rights to Lindros.

This set the team back a few years, and they failed to make the playoffs over the course of the next two seasons.  In the meantime, the trade provided the cornerstone for the Quebec / Colorado Avalanche franchise’s Stanley Cup-winning teams.

Up until last year, the Kings had not made the NHL’s postseason dance for the past six NHL seasons.

In this scenario, they are well ahead of the early-90′s Flyers’ progression. as a team  Under Lombardi, the team has gotten younger, deeper, and better.

Boasting such young star players as Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jack Johnson, Wayne Simmonds, Jonathan Quick, and Jonathan Bernier, there is a threat that this group also could be torn asunder.

If Lombardi were to sign Kovalchuk for the contract demands that the player’s camp is asking for, Los Angeles faces the risk of having to part with some of the good, young core that has been developed.

While the Kings have in excess of $17 million of cap space available for the upcoming campaign, the problem would arise after the 2010-11 season.  That’s when the contracts of Doughty, Johnson, Simmonds, and Bernier are set to expire, and the youngsters will be due hefty raises as they become restricted free agents.

Also set to become unrestricted free agents after next year are veterans Michal Handzus, Justin Williams, and Erik Ersberg.

Further complicating matters are the whispers that the owners are going to demand that the existing upper salary cap limit of $59.4 million be lowered.  This would almost certainly lead to a lockout by the owners as the NHLPA would fight a reduction vigorously.  And the Kings would still be on the hook to pay Kovalchuk with a guaranteed deal.

But Lombardi would have his work cut out for him in getting his core players signed if the cap were to remain the same, let alone any possible decrease.

If Lombardi wants to take a gamble and truly believes that signing Kovalchuk is the key piece to pushing his team over the top, he may want to take that chance.

But it is a risky choice.  As it appears now, Lombardi has his team on the right track and headed very quickly in the right direction.  Being able to keep the core intact, they should have a window of opportunity to be contenders over the next several seasons going forward.

But Lombardi’s modus operandi historically has been to build his teams through youth and patience.  And it’s obvious that he is on the right track.  If he were to go after Kovalchuk and risk losing some of his young core, it would be a totally different train of thought.

Is Lombardi a betting man?

We shall see.

David Strehle
NHLHS Flyers Correspondent / NHL Writer
dstrehle@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @PhilaDAVEia