Penguins can seal Ottawa’s fate tonight by riding momentum

Many sports fans compare baseball to a marathon, and football to a sprint. An adequate comparison for the NHL, if there is one, is an eight month long boxing match.

After being on the receiving end of blows to end the season, the Pens took a crucial blow to the chops in Game 1, drawing negative criticism from hockey’s media, fanbase, and blogosphere, including from yours truly. In Game 2 and 3, however, the Pens began to deliver the heavy punishment, rather than taking it, to the Ottawa Senators.

I wrote in my Game 1 recap that Pittsburgh’s lack of preparation and responsibility from behind the bench was equally as responsible for their loss to begin the season as much as the lackluster defensive play and maddeningly consequential goaltending gaffes. Aside from a Ruslan Fedotenko scratch, no major line changes were implemented. The plan of attack, however, was vastly different, and the Penguins benefited.

In Game 1, the Senators won the matchup battle in spades. Evgeni Malkin‘s two powerplay goals were the Penguins’ life support for much of the game, but Malkin’s even strength line was vilified by Ottawa’s forecheck. In Game 3′s victory, Geno’s line came to life, largely due to the outstanding play of Alexei Ponikarovsky, a deadline acquisition that was close to being deemed Ray Shero’s first major failure as General Manager of the Penguins, and a hockey pariah among Penguins fans everywhere. Ponikarovsky only registered two shots on goal in Game 3, but one of those found the back of the twine at a pivotal moment. The latest Penguin also forechecked effectively, and showed significant value in the defensive zone.

The Penguins also saw new life in Game 3′s victory from their Jordan Staal-led third line, which, between Staal and his two linemates, Matt Cooke and Tyler Kennedy, has earned a combined minus-9 rating throughout the playoffs so far. Brand new Selke award nominee Staal and his two wingers didn’t see an offensive production to boost that dismal rating, but their massive onslaught of takeaways and puck possession was a crucial catalyst in Sunday night’s victory.

Despite these improvements, along with a defense coming to life quickly, the stars of the show have been, to no surprise, Sidney Crosby and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.

Crosby continues to be the heart and soul of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and is earning his much-heralded celebrity status amongst sports fan with his playoff performance this season. Crosby is leading all playoff skaters with seven points. Ironically enough, six out of his seven points have come against Ottawa’s top defense pairing of Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips. He also leads all playoff skaters in assists, and is tied for second in plus/minus. Sid the Kid also continues to be the team’s most dominant two-way forward in the playoffs. His highlight reel defensive dive to prevent Game 2 from going into overtime, and his one-man-wrecking-crew of a goal created off of his own his forecheck in Game 3 sealed the victory for Pittsburgh.

After looking like a liability in Game One, Marc-Andre Fleury has made his triumphant return to postseason glory in both of Pittsburgh’s recent playoff victories. Fleury has only allowed three goals in his last two games, and has kept the Senators scoreless in three out of their last five periods against the Penguins. To paraphrase the old adage, a team cannot win in the playoffs without elite goaltending. This rang true for the Penguins in both of their cup runs in 2008 and 2009. If the Penguins are to live up to that saying’s standard’s, than they are on the right track behind Fleury’s recent play in net.

Ottawa’s season currently hangs in the balance in Game 4 tonight. A third straight loss would officially render them ice-cold, and down 3-1 heading back to a raucous Pittsburgh crowd in Game 5. Despite their discrepancies to finish the season, the Pens are not appearing to be a team poised to surrender three straight playoff losses. In an attempt to create an offensive fire, the Senators have scratched gritty forward Shane Donovan for tonight’s game and will play former 56 goal scorer, Jonathan Cheechoo instead. Cheechoo has been a colossal disappointment for the Sens this season, scoring only five goals in 61 games played. He spent the remaining 21 games of Ottawa’s schedule in the AHL. Cheechoo also has only five goals in his last 19 playoff games.

Ottawa must also improve defensively. Only one Ottawa defenseman, Chris Campoli, boasts a positive plus/minus rating in the playoffs so far. The team’s collective plus/minus  amongst its’ defenseman is a glaring minus-6. Ottawa’s goaltending, weighed down by Brian Elliott’s .868% save percentage, will need all the help it can get.

The adjustment burden has been transferred and the Pens are playing with the swagger, confidence, and talent of a cup champion for the first time in quite some time. The Ottawa Senators are on the ropes. Tonight may be their last chance to come out swinging effectively. If effective adjustments are not made in Game 4, the team’s most effective swinging might be taking place on golf courses across Canada’s capital city, rather than on the ice.