The Value of: Ilya Kovalchuk
NHL Hot Stove presents it’s “The Value Of” series which will look at some of the names discussed around the NHL who likely will be moved at the March 3rd trade deadline.
Instead of debating whether he will stay in Atlanta, lets suppose the team placed him on the block. What would they get for their all-time leading scorer and captain?
I think the question lies deeper than just that. GM Don Waddell may decide he wants another established and hopefully signed forward coming back, as they commanded from Dany Heatley. Or they will go the popular route of the Marian Hossa trade, a huge bounty.
One assumes the Hossa route and rebuilding completely around a young core of Zach Bogosian, Evander Kane, Tobias Enstrom and Bryan Little. As of this writing the team sits a mere three points outside of playoff position following a come from behind win against the Maple Leafs.
Since Kovalchuk represents the best player on the market his comparable players from the last two deadlines are Olli Jokinen and Hossa. Jokinen fetched two young roster players and a later pick while Hossa warranted two young roster players, a top prospect and a first round pick.
If we were to name the top rumored teams and go by that sort of formula we should distinguish fair value from each contender. Reports out of Boston claimed Waddell asked for both Tuukka Rask and Blake Wheeler while the Bruins thought Wheeler + and their first conditionally should he resign. The pattern would warrant Wheeler + Vladamir Sobotka and the first, the latter taking the place of a later pick and prospect.
Chicago Blackhawks – The Hawks posses the pieces to land Kovalchuk, probably more so than any other team. They team could offer two of Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg, Dave Bolland (if healthy), Andrew Ladd or Troy Brouwer plus one of Kyle Beach, Akim Aliu or Bill Sweatt and likely their first. This deal in essence will decide which of the young players play vital roles in the team’s future while freeing some would-be cap space down the road when Kovalchuk walks.
Los Angeles Kings – GM Dean Lombardi scouted Kovalchuk on January 10th according to The Fourth Period. Not sure why a general manager would scout a player every team knows. Regardless, the Kings hold many many pieces of interest to the Thrashers. Waddell could pick two from Matt Greene, Oscar Moeller, Wayne Simmonds, Scott Parse or Trevor Lewis and one of Braydon Schenn, Thomas Hickey or Andrei Loktionov. A long look at the prospects list makes any general manager’s mouth water.
Washington Capitals – By now, if you came to NHLHS you read our piece on Kovalchuk and Ovechkin together. Anthony suggested either Alexander Semin or Nicklas Backstrom, but based on Boston’s reaction I would follow something more on the formula. Two of Karl Alzner, Tomas Fleischmann, Mathieu Perrault or Eric Fehr plus one of John Carlson, Oskar Osala or Anton Gustafsson and a first. I do not think GM George McPhee makes this deal, gutting all his youth for a rental, nor do I think Waddell deals within the division.
Philadelphia Flyers – As mentioned on The Hockey Guys radio show, the Flyers will not move Jeff Carter. The ransom probably includes both studs Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk as a starting point. Again, with less depth than the Kings and Blackhawks, moving Kovalchuk to Philadelphia seems too far fetched.
Kovalchuk may very well stay in Atlanta, staying comfortable with the only jersey he ever wore. We do not intend to debate his move, just determine the expected value for a superstar soon-to-be UFA.
Kovy, Plz come 2 BOSTON!!!!! We need some sort of offence if we r going 2 compete and will never win anything by playing games that end in one goal deficits and shootouts. If Ilya Kovalchuck went to Boston 4 some combination of players like ryder, sobotka, stuart, begin, and wideman + draft picks and prospects like Zach Hamill, we could do some serious damage next year and even make a good playoff run this year. If Kovy joins the B's without us losing Rask, Chara, Savard, Bergeron, and our most-likely high 1st round draft pick we recieved from Toronto for phil Kessel we will be cup contenders for years.
Imagine if the Bruins got Kovalchuck……
1st line: C: Savard, LW: Lucic, RW: Kovalchuck (Assuming the Claude Julien would switch him to the right side)
2nd line: C: Bergeron, LW: Sturm, RW: Wheeler
3rd line: C: Kreici LW: Satan, RW: Torontos 1st round draft pick
4th linne: Will have be made up of players like Begin, Thornton, Sobotka, Paille, and Bitz
Defence will be made up of Chara, Morris, Ference, Hunwick, Boychuck, and from I have heard may also get Boris Valebik from the Kovalchuck trade. This will obviously depend on who is traded.
Goalies: Rask and Thomas
PP: C: Savard RW: Wheeler LW: Lucic D: Kovalchuck and Chara
PK: C: Bergeron W:Paille D: Chara and Morris
Now thats a Stanley Cup worthy team.