As of this writing the Columbus Blue Jackets sit 14th in the Western Conference and 26th in the entire League.  With only four wins and eight points in their last ten games, the ship seems to be sinking.  GM Scott Howson likely will move his expiring contracts before season’s end leaving a player like Raffi Torres of great interest.

Through 52 games with the Blue Jackets Torres posted 26 points. Through a full NHL season those totals project for 40 points, right around his career high of 41 in 2005-2006.  The 28-year-old also projects to score 20 goals for the third time in his career and could in theory flirt with 30 goals.

In his limited playoff experience he holds a similar pace with 11 points in 22 games with the Oilers and two points in four games with Columbus.  Although limited, his ability to endure a Stanley Cup run should play a larger role in determining his value.

During the 2008 offseason the Oilers traded Torres to the Blue Jackets for then forward prospect Gilbert Brule.   The Jackets acquired a trusted veteran while the Oilers received a nice building block for their future, essentially a win-win situation for both teams.  If the Blue Jackets receive another young asset then it could possibly swing the trade in their favor.

An interesting destination would be Pittsburgh, where GM Ray Shero always seems to buy at this period.  Torres as well as Alexei Ponikarovsky likely top the list of affordable and useful wingers for his elite centers.  Of course, Ilya Kovalchuk probably will be moved or announced off the market before lesser wingers get moved.  Teams who miss out in the Kovalchuk sweepstakes may take home Torres as a consolation prize.

The price most likely will be a prospect or draft pick, depending on what Howson wants back.  This player does not represent a first-round draft pick’s value despite his 5th overall selection.

Torres makes the remainder of a 2.250 cap hit, which on March 3rd will be less than 500K.  Only six teams at this point cannot afford this grinding winger so overall interest should be high.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

In the beginning of the 2008-2009 season nobody in Arizona would think about trading away their top young player: Peter Mueller.  The former eighth overall selection potted 54 points in his rookie season, only two years after his draft year.

Fast forwarding a year and a half later and the kid seems to be lost.  A understandable sophomore slump continued into what now appears to be a brutal third season.  Mueller seems to be the only player adversely affected by the necessary coaching change, unable to adapt to coach Dave Tippett and his defensive system.

Through 45 games the 21-year-old managed 13 points, with only three of those touching the back of the net.  Ranger GM Glen Sather expressed interest in Mueller earlier in the year, offering a scavenger deal centered around Bobby Sanguinetti or Christopher Higgins.  While Sather might wish to fleece his former assistant and acquire the troubled young player, GM Don Maloney seems poised to receive fair value.

The Boston Bruins moved a similar player in Brad Boyes three trade deadlines ago.  At the time Boyes came off a career year only to fail to produce.  They team moved him for a similarly struggling yet established young player in Dennis Wideman.  The Coyotes most likely would require a young NHL player with similar success and experience to lessen the blow of losing a once bluechip prospect.

If he can regain his scoring touch Mueller may become a top talent in this league one day, as expected.  For one he needs to restore his confidence and playing on the third line will not do this.  When your linemates are Lauri Korpikoski and Robert Lang respectively, most players would not score 30 goals or more.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

If the Oilers cannot move star defenseman Sheldon Souray perhaps they can move another of their excellent offensive defensemen in Lubomir Visnovsky.  TSN’s Darren Dreger listed Visnovsky as one of his 10 most likely players to get traded at the trade deadline so it should make sense that the Oilers wish to move this talent.

The Oilers traded for Visnovsky from the Kings and the latter traded up for the Slovakian d-man in the 2000 draft.  Had Los Angeles not made a move for him he probably would be in an Ottawa uniform to this day.

Regardless, less than two years ago he moved for two young, valuable roster players: Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene.  At this point with three years left at 5.6 million the Oilers may not receive the same bounty despite admirable production.

During his last three seasons in Los Angeles he posted 166 points over 231 games, a .72 point-per-game pace and impressive marks for a blueliner.  With Edmonton he registered points at a .62 PPG pace, less than his previous totals but above average regardless.

Still with cash strapped teams and limited cap space only a handful of teams could take on Visnovsky’s salary without the Oilers taking back salary.  GM Steve Tambellini likely would acquire a young talented forward and a stop gap defenseman for the services of his top-pairing player.

Still with Souray and possibly Scott Niedermayer on the market, teams would probably list the 33-year-old as a contingency plan and not necessarily the solution.  Buffalo, Washington, Ottawa and possibly Vancouver could use a defenseman of this caliber but would they be willing to part with the players necessary to make a deal?

Lets wait for the other dominoes to drop before Visnovsky leaves Edmonton.  Still should be a very interesting player come March 3rd.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

Interesting fact: Through 956 games Paul Kariya never left a team via trade.  He moved from Anaheim to Colorado after nine years in California.  Then left Colorado for Nashville and then eventually to St. Louis, all via free agency.

Kariya signed a three-year deal, 18 million dollar contract with the Blues in the summer of 2007.  Although he played 82 games in his first season, Kariya only managed 53 through the last 1.5 + seasons.  His inability to stay healthy likely greatly diminishes his value.

Mark Recchi, six years older than Kariya, went with a second round pick to Boston for Martins Karsums and Matt Lashoff, two decent and low-ceiling prospects.  Bill Guerin, four years older than Kariya, went for a conditional (3rd) pick.  Although those players represent his closest comparable trade, he likens himself more to the Guerin or Recchi trade of two deadlines ago.  Those trades warranted either a first or second plus a low ceiling roster player or mid-level prospect.

Through 42 games, the veteran left wing registered 20 points which projects for 39 points.  His current contract holds a no movement clause meaning GM Larry Pleau cannot move him anywhere without his consent.  Still at 35-years-old he may welcome the move to a contending team.  The Blues simply cannot sustain their winning ways and soon will fall out of the playoff picture altogether.

The Islanders, Flames, Bruins and perhaps even Nashville could use a little depth at left wing making them excellent options for the Blues.  All of those teams also could spare a second round pick or a prospect as they boast some of the deeper prospect pools in the NHL.

To summarize, Kariya must want to leave St. Louis and his value would be a 2nd rounder at most plus a non blue-chip prospect.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

At this point the entire city of Edmonton knows their star defenseman and powerplay trigger man would waive his no trade clause if the deal “makes sense.”  So lets sit in our armchair and play general manager, trying to find out exactly what we can get for our All Star.

Sheldon Souray claims the deal needs to make sense meaning both he and the team need to be happy. His happiness wages on playing on the West Coast, close to his family house.  The team’s happiness would be fair value for a player they believed would backbone their blue line when they signed him over two years ago.

Similar to the writeup we conducted on Dion Phaneuf, no other player quite compares to Souray.  An immediate comparable trade simply does not exist.  The closest defenseman traded would be Brian Campbell who the Sharks acquired as a rental.

Back in 2000, the New Jersey Devils traded him, a second-round pick and a prospect to the Montreal Canadiens for Vladamir Malakhov.  This trade came well before Souray became the prolific scorer or powerplay presence he currently is so of course the deal appears lopsided in hindsight.

In present day Souray commands much more.  His production last season warranted consideration as a top 10 defender although this year we saw a substantial drop, understandable considering the Oilers’ place in the standings.  I would place his value somewhere in between.

Since the team most likely will sell and rebuild for the future Souray should be on his way out.  The best idea would be to acquire a stopgap to replace him on the blue line as well as a high draft pick.  The player coming back would need to carry a cap hit at least half of Souray’s 5.4 million.

Again the team would need to make sense, meaning West Coast.  By my calculations only the Phoenix Coyotes play out west and can afford his cap hit without sending salary back, therefore moving Souray proves both difficult and most likely not reasonable.

Even though the Oilers would love an edge in the Taylor Hall sweepstakes they most likely will not retain it through trading this player.  Rightfully so, when they build their next dynasty they will be thankful for his shot still manning the point.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

With the Flames now on the outside looking in, their playoff chances seem dwindling. At this point numerous Dion Phaneuf rumors continue to swirl around the NHL, the latest coming from the kid who probably got beat up waiting for the bus, Larry Brooks of The New York Post.

Despite the fact you can find numerous errors in said article, Brooks does indeed mention GM Darryl Sutter as desperate to find a suitor for Phaneuf. In order to gage his trade value, first we must determine how a pursuing team sees the enigmatic 24-year-old.

With the Flames dying offense, their immediate need would be skill. Brooks mentions the Rangers but the two simply do not seem to be a match. The Rangers only hold so many skilled players on their roster, most of them young and signed cheaply. GM Glen Sather cannot afford another big name contract and acquiring Michal Rozsival or Wade Redden would be a lateral move if not a downgrade.

Sutter also visited GM Paul Holmgren of the Flyers but do not expect a Phaneuf for Jeff Carter swap as Dustin Leed of The Hockey Guys mentions seemingly every week.

Phaneuf currently ties Mark Giordano for the most points by a Flames defenseman, meaning he should be their goto offensive player but could be replaced. Couple that with the struggles of Jay Bouwmeester, who in his first season in Calgary seems to need more minutes in order to play a more effective game.

As of this writing only Brad Richards exchanged teams with a contract exceeding 6 million dollars and one year remaining since the lockout. Richards in his own right plays a top line center position and already won the Conn Smythe Trophy. The players moved for him seem minimal to what he could fetch without a salary cap, which should be a similar predicament for Phaneuf. The latter holds a 6.5 million dollar cap hit through 2014.

At this point there is no possible way to gage what Phaneuf will go for. His presence signifies a constant distraction which urges Sutter to move the player. I could see a team like Toronto, with cap space and budget space, able to swing a deal if they possessed the correct pieces.

The team acquiring him would have to believe this defender will be a cornerstone of their franchise, opposed to a 40 point player with defensive lapses and attitude problems. If they believe the former, the Flames will move him for the value their deem fair and everybody wins. Still in this cap era, nobody really wins.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

After enduring four long games on the bench after a few previous stints watching from the press box, Ranger forward Ales Kotalik would like a trade.  Jim Schmiedeberg of Blueshirt Banter describes the full story as Kotalik seems destined for a new destination.

The short explanation says Kotalik will not honor a March autograph session because he would like to be moved and preferably to a Western Conference team.  At 31-years old and two more years left on his contract his value must be at an all-time low.

Through 44 games the enigmatic power forward posted 22 points, with 16 coming with the man advantage.

Coach John Tortorella brought him in after watching him on the Sabres and admiring his powerful one-timer.  He designed a powerplay system surrounded around Kotalik and rookie Michael Del Zotto, hoping the young defenseman would feed his counterpart often and successfully.  Through the first twelve games he played at a point-per-game pace which really discounts his numbers over the remaining 32 games.

His 22 points place him sixth on the team in scoring which speaks more on the Rangers inability to score when he struggles than his role on the team.  Still there must be a need for a four time 20-goal scorer somewhere out there.

Last year he fetched a 2nd round pick from the Oilers terminating his tenure in Buffalo.  Considering Kotalik only potted 43 points last year, his 40 point pace seems surprisingly consistent.  Regardless, GM Glen Sather most likely will dump his salary with two more years of a flat 3 million dollar cap hit.

Sather dumped Matt Cullen to the Hurricanes with three years remaining at a similar salary.  Cullen only fetched a 3rd round pick, an AHL player and a mid-level prospect.  At best the Rangers look at a 3rd round pick and some help for the Wolfpack.  Calgary and possibly Colorado or Anaheim likely would require help on the wing come deadline day or if these rumors prove true even sooner.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

What should Alex Tanguay fetch on the trade market?

This subject came to mind after reading a recent article by Scott Cruikshank of The Calgary Herald.  The writer makes the case for Tanguay citing how badly the Flames need a playmaker to go along with snipers Jarome Iginla and Olli Jokinen.  Cruikshank also mentions how the Flames cornered the market for tough, grinding types both in Calgary and Abbotsford, a luxury other teams would dream about, but I digress.

Just three short years ago, Tanguay flanked Iginla alternating between the center and left wing positions but eventually would be traded in favor of current Montreal Canadien Michael Cammalleri.  The Canadiens sent the Flames a first round pick (25th overall) in which they selected Windsor Spitfire Greg Nemisz. At that point in his career Tanguay seemed prime to put up close to a PPG pace, only a year removed from doing so with 81 points in as many games.

Now, at 31-years-old Tanguay offers a veteran presence and most likely a contributor but not that breakthrough offensive player he once was.  Following an injury riddled 50 games in Montreal, the Ste-Justine native signed for a meager 2.5 million with the Tampa Bay Lightning, over half of his previous salary (5.25).

The Lightning hoped for that reasonable salary he would form instant chemistry with fellow Quebecers Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier.  However, an inconsistent effort from Lecavalier as well as the newfound chemistry between St. Louis and Steven Stamkos make Tanguay both superfluous and expendable.  Unless the Lightning have identity issues and somehow think they can sneak their way into the playoffs with a shoddy defensive core and two B rate goaltenders, he should and will be moved.

What will he fetch then?

Definitely not a first round pick as he did two years ago.  The majority of the League chose not to sign him during the offseason with the asset requirement at an absolute minimum.  Definitely not a 2nd round pick  and a young defenseman as he fetched over three years ago during his trade to Calgary.  Those opinions of Tanguay left the league with his former linemate Peter Forsberg.

A quick glance at last year’s deadline would say at best a 2nd round pick.

Last year both Dominic Moore and Ales Kotalik fetched a second, with both producing at a similar pace and a similar age.  Tanguay should finish between 40 and 50 points, both of those players finished with 43 and 45 respectively.  Nik Antropov, a year younger than Tanguay, finished a completely healthy and productive season with 59 points and only warranted a 4th round pick more.

A few teams may need his services.  The Flames for one make sense, especially coming off the heels of their 9-1 loss to the Sharks.  The Islanders could be a fit as they likely need another top six winger and center to stay in the picture.  The Ducks, Coyotes and even Red Wings make sense in order to fill in injuries and boost scoring woes.  Imagine if the Wings signed Tanguay instead of promoting Ville Leino.

Yes Tanguay plays a one-dimensional game which often can be considered selfish, soft or my personal favorite the “wet noodle.”  He also boasts a resume of legitimate scoring potential with playoff experience and a much needed veteran presence.

Alexander Monaghan
NHLHS Editor
amonaghan@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @NHLHotStove

What does the future hold for Marty Turco and the Dallas Stars? The team continues to fall out of playoff contention, Do they begin rebuilding or do they resign the veteran and try again? At 34-years-old, one would speculate his reign in Dallas would be coming to an end.

The goaltending pipeline provides nothing.  The team drafted two NHL quality goaltenders in Dan Ellis and Mike Smith but let them go with Turco their man between the pipes.  This season, Turco’s numbers turned some heads, creating trade buzz after an admitedly dismal showing last season.

With Turco’s expiring contract and excellent career numbers, some contending team should be willing to part with prospects or picks.  This transaction would relieve the limited budget in which owner Tom Hicks forces the team to operate. In fact, rumors surrounding the team and their financial woes indicate both Turco, star center Mike Ribeiro and most likely and recently agitator Steve Ott should pack their bags.

Rumors earlier in the year indicated interest from the Philadelphia Flyers.  Both teams however shot down these rumors almost immediately.

Also, the recent play of Alex Auld fires up further speculation. Auld got his second start in a row Monday and backstopped the Stars to their second consecutive victory, beating the Minnesota Wild, 4-3, at American Airlines Center.

He wasn’t flawless, but he was consistent and steady. And that’s what the Stars need right now. If his play continues to be steady, there is still hope for a playoff birth as well as a return with shipping Turco out.

Keep in mind that the Stars are not the most gifted club in the league.  They posses future pieces but stare at a second season of playoff absence. With a team mostly filled with veterans the Stars brass need to focus more on the future and less on the now.

Brandon Worley of Defending Big D recently breached the subject of trading Turco, below shows an excerpt from his article.

This past weekend, several online publications and hockey television analysts stated that the Dallas Stars are preparing to move on without Marty Turco. Now this is hardly surprising news; the future of Turco with the Dallas Stars has been in doubt since the start of the season. Yet now it’s being reported as if this is a fact: the Dallas Stars are moving on without him.

The question now asked is: What is the value of a player with a 2.84 GAA and a .900 SV%?

The answer: The Stars need to use Turco’s history as a selling point in order to retain full value.  A second or third round pick seems fair at this point, if you consider Cristobal Huet only fetched the same two years ago.

The domino’s are then able to fall.  GM Joe Nieuwendyk has a situation. It is inevitable that Turco is with a different club come October 2010. Do not go the route of the Florida Panthers Mr. Nieuwendyk.

Anthony Curatolo
NHLHS Senior Writer
acuratolo@nhlhotstove.com
Twitter: @ACHockeyGuys